Atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological contributions to seasonal variations in length of day     

J. Höpfner 《Journal of Geodesy》2001,75(2-3):137-150

 The annual and semiannual residuals derived in the axial angular momentum budget of the solid Earth–atmosphere system reflect significant signals. They must be caused by further excitation sources. Since, in particular, the contribution for the wind term from the atmospheric layer between the 10 and 0.3 hPa levels to the seasonal variations in length of day (LOD) is still missing, it is necessary to extend the top level into the upper stratosphere up to 0.3 hPa. Under the conservation of the total angular momentum of the entire Earth, variations in the oceanic angular momentum (OAM) and the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) are further significant excitation sources at seasonal time scales. Focusing on other contributions to the Earth's axial angular momentum budget, the following data are used in this study: axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) data derived for the 10–0.3 hPa layer from 1991 to 1997 for computing the missing wind effects; axial OAM functions as generated by oceanic general circulation models (GCMs), namely for the ECHAM3 and the MICOM models, available from 1975 to 1994 and from 1992 to 1994, respectively, for computing the oceanic contributions to LOD changes, and, concerning the HAM variations, the seasonal estimates of the hydrological contribution as derived by Chao and O'Connor [(1988) Geophys J 94: 263–270]. Using vector representation, it is shown that the vectors achieve a close balance in the global axial angular momentum budget within the estimated uncertainties of the momentum quantities on seasonal time scales. Received: 6 April 2000 / Accepted: 13 December 2000  相似文献   

Developing a bivariate spatial association measure: An integration of Pearson's r and Moran's I   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sang-Il Lee 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2001,3(4):369-385

 This research is concerned with developing a bivariate spatial association measure or spatial correlation coefficient, which is intended to capture spatial association among observations in terms of their point-to-point relationships across two spatial patterns. The need for parameterization of the bivariate spatial dependence is precipitated by the realization that aspatial bivariate association measures, such as Pearson's correlation coefficient, do not recognize spatial distributional aspects of data sets. This study devises an L statistic by integrating Pearson's r as an aspatial bivariate association measure and Moran's I as a univariate spatial association measure. The concept of a spatial smoothing scalar (SSS) plays a pivotal role in this task. Received: 07 November 2000 / Accepted: 02 August 2001  相似文献   

Solution and econometric estimation of spatial dynamic models in continuous space and continuous time     

Kieran P. Donaghy 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2001,3(3):257-270

 This paper presents and demonstrates a general approach to solving spatial dynamic models in continuous space and continuous time that characterize the behaviour of intertemporally and interspatially optimizing agents and estimating from discrete data the parameters of such models. The approach involves the use of a projection method to solve the models and a quasi-Newton algorithm to update quasi-FIML parameter estimates. Received: 26 July 2000 / Accepted: 31 January 2001  相似文献   

The development of computer networks: First results from a microeconomic model     

Gunther Maier  Alexander Kaufmann 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2001,3(2):155-166

 Computer networks like the Internet are gaining importance in social and economic life. The accelerating pace of the adoption of network technologies for business purposes is a rather recent phenomenon. Many applications are still in the early, sometimes even experimental, phase. Nevertheless, it seems to be certain that networks will change the socioeconomic structures we know today. This is the background for our special interest in the development of networks, in the role of spatial factors influencing the formation of networks, and consequences of networks on spatial structures, and in the role of externalities. This paper discusses a simple economic model – based on a microeconomic calculus – that incorporates the main factors that generate the growth of computer networks. The paper provides analytic results about the generation of computer networks. The paper discusses (1) under what conditions economic factors will initiate the process of network formation, (2) the relationship between individual and social evaluation, and (3) the efficiency of a network that is generated based on economic mechanisms. Received: 5 July 2000 / Accepted: 28 November 2000  相似文献   

多窗谱分析方法及其在全球变暖研究中的应用   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

江志红  屠其璞  施能 《气象学报》2001,59(4):480-490

多窗谱分析方法是一种低方差、高分辨的谱分析方法 ,尤其适合于非线性气候系统中高噪声背景下弱信号、时频演变信号的诊断分析。文中简要地介绍了多窗谱分析方法的基本原理 ,并将其用于近 1 5 0 a来全球及南、北半球温度变化的研究。结果表明 :(1 )在温度呈线性变暖的背景趋势下 ,北半球、全球年平均温度还具有显著的 40～ 70 a的准周期低频振荡 ,它们与变暖过程中的波动性密切相关 ;(2 )年代际振荡信号在北半球温度序列中也相当明显 ,南半球则存在多种低于 5 a尺度的显著振荡周期 ,半球或全球 ENSO振荡分量、QBO周期信号的振幅都具有缓变包络的特性 ;(3 )与传统功率谱估计、最大熵谱估计结果的对比表明 ,多窗谱分析方法方法得到的谱估计分辨力高 ,稳定性强。  相似文献   

新疆积雪对气候变暖的响应   总被引：38，自引：1，他引：38  

李培基 《气象学报》2001,59(4):491-501

积雪对全球变暖的响应是当前正在争论的问题。文中通过地面气象台站和 SMMR微波卫星遥感两种积雪资料所建立的两个独立的积雪序列的一致性 ,证明前者在表现新疆积雪长期变化能力方面具有可靠性。阐明了积雪年际变化特征及其与冬季气温和降水量年际波动的关系 ,检验了积雪长期变化趋势。研究表明 ,虽然近 5 0 a来新疆冬季变暖十分显著 ,尤其 2 0世纪 90年代为最温暖的时期 ,但是积雪并未出现持续减少的现象 ;积雪长期变化表现为显著的年际波动过程叠加在长期缓慢的增加趋势之上。积雪年际波动是冬季降水量和气温两者年际波动共同作用的结果 ;冬季气温和降雪量变化受不同的欧亚环流振荡所控制 ;积雪增加趋势与降雪量趋势相一致 ,这可能是由于全球变暖导致海洋蒸发量增加 ,以及在寒冷干燥气候下积雪对降雪量变化更为敏感的缘故。  相似文献   

我国期气候预测的业务技术发展     

赵振国 《山东气象》2001,21(3):4-7

概述了我国短期气候预测技术和业务现代化发展的历史，分析了“九五”以来我国短期气候预测技术的新进展，探讨了未来短期气候预测技术发展的几个主要问题。  相似文献   

试论厄尔尼诺对广西气候异常影响的物理机制     

李耀先  梁隽玫  李秀存  张永强 《气象研究与应用》2001,22(1):32-34

通过对瓦克环流、哈德莱环流、副热带高压、台风等的分析 ,结合广西降水和气温异常状况 ,认为厄尔尼诺现象发生时 ,赤道东太平洋海温异常升高 ,使瓦克环流和哈得莱环流发生变化 ,引起副热带高压增强 ,台风生成数减少 ,从而产生广西前汛期偏涝 ,后汛期偏旱 ,全年气温偏暖的结果  相似文献   

广西山区夏凉气候资源的合理开发与利用     

庞庭颐 《气象研究与应用》2001,22(1):47-51

对广西山区夏凉气候资源的开发与利用进行了分析 ,提出发展喜凉蔬菜和建立猕猴桃产业 ,是发展山区经济的好路子  相似文献   

广西两系杂交稻制种安全期气候分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

涂方旭  李雄 《气象研究与应用》2001,22(4):40-43

根据两系杂交水稻制种对气象条件的要求 ,利用广西 80多站的气象资料 ,统计分析了广西各地两系杂交水稻制种的安全期 ,提出了广西杂交水稻安全制种应注意的一些气候问题  相似文献